"Two players. Two sides. One is light … one is dark"

Here's an idea with real resonance for considering the show's endgame, from commenter boycurry here.

Nobody has talked about the role Backgammon plays in the promo for next week. This is the key. The island is a metaphysical game of Backgammon and the numbers of the candidates refer either to positions on the board, or roles of the dice/moves to get Jack into position 23, the last position on the board that white can block the color players pieces from leaving the board/island. There are more clues about the island, candidates and their numbers and the dual realities within the rules of the game if anyone wants to look them up.

That.is.awesome. Jacob is the sort of defensive backgammon player who never moves his gamepieces from his opponents home quadrant. In backgammon though, one gamepiece in position 23 is not enough to keep your opponent from leaving the board, for if he lands on you, you're vulnerable and will have to move from the gameboard to the bar. The Candidate plus the wildcard (that is, Jack + Desmond) are necessary to stop the MiB's escape. The gamepieces that have been lost through attrition during the course of play must be moved to the bar, a sort of purgatory for those who, as Michael says, 'can't move on'.

PREDICTION: A player must roll doubles to free his gamepieces from the bar and return them to the gameboard. Jack, as the candidate, will find that he must free those dead souls trapped on the Island as part of his effort to counter Flocke.

The doubling cube in backgammon allows one player to raise the stakes by powers of two: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64. Should the other player refuse to play with raised stakes, they lose the game. Jacob and MiB's conflict seems to have been escalating for a long time now--and neither has refused the raised stakes.

Anyone else comment on backgammon and the show? boycurry mentions a link between the sideways and the game...but I'm not bright enough to see it.

Mostly minor miscellaneous mysteries, Part II

1. Did Desmond and Penny really sail all the way from London to Los Angeles after Des get’s Ms. Hawking’s address from Widmore?

2. We know what the ash does, but what is it? Is its potency the result of its origin, or perhaps of a ritual consecration of sorts, like holy water.

3. Suppose Dogen used his machine that “…tells us how the scale [of good and evil in a man] is balanced.” on someone who who’s unarguably ‘good’, say, Hurley. What possible difference could there be in his ‘good’ reaction to electrocution and branding? I suppose those scenes were dramatic, but absent further explication, the machine’s proposed function is ridiculous.

4. How is the Ajira plane going to leave Hydra Island when its passenger side windshield is shattered? (but nice symmetry to Oceanic 815, in which the same window was broken)

5. Was the cave Flocke showed Sawyer in ‘The Substiute’ really Jacob’s cave? It’s bleak setting on cliff-side seems more appropriate for a monster—the MiB. (actually, this tends more toward a major than minor question)

6. Who set in motion the poison gas dispersal that was narrowly avoided in ‘The Other Woman’? Charlotte proposes that it was Ben. But Ben is back in New Otherton as a prisoner when all this is going on with nary a gas-mask in sight.

7. The mystery mothers: who is David Shephard’s mother? Or Penny’s mother??

8. Why did Smokey appear to Locke as a 'beautiful bright light' (as Locke describes it much later to Eko in 'The Cost of Living') in 'Walkabout?

9. What is Richard referring to when he responds to Jack's question of where he [Richard] has been with "you wouldn't believe me if I told you" during 'Dr. Linus'? Richard immediately goes on to say that he's just been to the devastated Temple--perhaps a situation that one 'wouldn't believe'--but Richard's remark appears to allude to something else. What?

10. Who hit the John Locke's mom with a car, forcing the premature Locke to be delivered?

Ellie accidently invented the Sideways world: A 'Lost' theory with (a little) predictive ability

Following another theorist’s proposal that the Island is a macroscopic place in which multiple quantum states can coexist: Just as Schrodinger’s cat is both alive and dead before an observer checks the experimental result, two states of the universe exist at the end of the events of ‘The Incident’: one in which Juliet detonated the bomb by hitting it with a stone, and one in which she failed to do so with the stone and died shortly thereafter at the bottom of the Swan drill-shaft. Juliet, in effect, committed quantum suicide. She was motivated to strike the bomb due to her regret over Sawyer's love for Kate (Fate), and she was able to ignite it due to the quantum behavior of the bomb (chance). The unpredictable outcome of the meshing of the Swan EM and Jughead energies is the sustained existence of the sideways universe.


Recall, for a moment, the Season 3 episode ‘Flashes before your eyes’ when Ms. Hawking told Desmond that pushing that button is the only really important thing that he would ever do? The button was ‘really important’ because it held at bay the profoundly important event that really did occur in the sideways universe—the sinking of the Island. The Island’s unique properties—its tendency to move within space and time, the buffer of warped space-time surrounding it (think Faraday’s projectile experiment, and the timeslip sickness experienced by Minkowski, Desmond, and others on the Kahana) emerge from a stable equilibrium between the real world and the unique EM sources underlying the Island, especially the massive source at the Swan site. When the DI drilled too deep at the Swan, they breached the anomaly, an act with massive, unforeseen consequences. The Island-world equilibrium was upset, and thus the Island fell to the bottom of the sea.


Let's talk about the universe where Juliet failed to set off the bomb. We'll come to know it as the Sideways universe. Though the bomb didn't go off, the chaos started by the Dharma drilling continued, leading to the island sinking to the bottom of the Pacific, as we saw it in the opening of ‘LA X’. Jack, Kate, Sawyer, Hurley, Jin, Miles, and Sayid...they all died either at the Swan site, or in the aftermath of the EM anomaly breach. At least Ellie, Charles, Roger Linus and Ben Linus were able to escape the Island before it sunk. Richard...may have died on the island, or not. For now, let's assume he did. Penny was born before 1977, so she'd be a young girl awaiting Charles and Ellie when they return to the mainland from the doomed island in 1977.


However, Ellie has brought with her from the island the notebook of the young man she shot who claimed to be her son. She will study it backwards and forwards in the years following 1977. She pieces together, from the notebook, some, but likely not all of the events of the life of Daniel Faraday as we knew him. She knows he was her son, that he was a time traveler, that he lived a post-1977 existence that was not happy, that 'Desmond Hume' was his constant, and probably a lot more—Faraday always said that everything he’d ever learned about the Dharma Initiative and about the Island was in his notebook! So, in the years following 1977, Ellie learns that she was, somehow, able to both kill her son and avoid doing so. She keeps this knowledge, very, very close. Perhaps she’s told her husband Charles, but just as likely she hasn’t.


Thus, when Desmond Hume starts asking about a 'Penny' (a name that may also have been in Faraday's notebook), she knows that this is an unnatural event, a violation, and wishing to preserve the gift she's been given of a 2nd life for her son, she attempts to quash Hume's questioning. All of the Sideways versions of the 815ers that we’ve seen in Season 6 are simply the grownup versions of the off-island child-versions of these characters that were growing up in the real world in 1977.

Let's move on to the alternate universe, in which Juliet successfully set off the bomb. We know this as the main timeline of Lost that the characters have experienced in Seasons 1-5. When Juliet ignited the bomb, Richard and the rescued Ellie were watching from afar. They knew that Jack, Kate, and Sayid (though I can't remember if they ever saw Hugo, Jin, Sawyer, or Juliet) were right at the site of the explosion.


Being at ground zero of a nuclear blast typically results in your death, and that’s why Richard tells Sun that he 'watched her friends die’ when she asks him about the Dharma yearbook photo at the end of Season 5. The bomb did not destroy the Island. In fact, it’s destructive radius is limited to a very small space around the Swan site due to its reaction/negation with the EM energy at the Swan. After the bomb was detonated, the DI eventually fills in the Swan site with concrete and builds the Swan hatch. It is the residual radiation of the bomb that leads to the problems that pregnant women face on the Island after 1977.


The Swan, until Desmond turned the fail-safe in 2004, acted as a ‘cork’ upon the EM energy beneath. In this timeline, Ellie leaves the Island knowing that it’s stable, but that its safety is very precarious. Unless the Swan site is constantly attended, the EM anomaly will escape and the Island will be destroyed. She is (for reasons that remain unrevealed at this point) absolutely dedicated to keeping the Island safe. As she reads the journal of the young man she shot, she realizes that he was indeed her son, and that it must be her heavy burden to guide him on a path that leads forward, and then back in time, so he can be sure to set off the H-bomb and prevent the DI from destroying the Island. From Daniel’s journal, she’s able to learn something of Desmond’s involvement with the Island.


It’s Ellie who passes this information to Charles, and it’s she he refers to when he tells Desmond ‘If everything I’ve been told about you is true, you’ll be perfectly fine.’ before he zaps Des.

WHACKADOO PREDICTIONS AND COROLLARIES ARISING FROM THIS THEORY:

1. Remember when a visibly distraught Ellie stepped into the living room where Daniel was playing piano in ‘The Variable’? I predict we’ll see this scene again from Ellie’s point of view. The reason she’s distraught is that she’s gotten off the phone with Charles, and they’ve agreed that Daniel is now old enough that he must be manipulated into becoming the man who will eventually return to the island and die at Ellie’s hand.

2. We will also see a scene in which Richard and a dazed Ellie watch a mushroom cloud arise over the Swan site. Ellie will be holding Daniel’s journal.

3. Ellie has fulfilled her 3 key tasks after she has (i) made sure Des doesn’t marry Penny, (ii) convinced Daniel to take Widmore’s Kahana offer, and (iii) sent (most) of the O6 back to the island on Ajira 316. This is why she tells Penny that ‘For the first time in a long time, I don't know what's going to happen next.’ She maintained the time-loop that kept the Island from sinking, presumably in the service of something that’s ‘bigger than her’.

4. The intersection of the two realities is the September, 2004 flight of Oceanic 815. It’s chance alone that leads Charlie to experience his vision, but it is destiny/Fate which motivates him to lead Des to a road to Damascus moment.

5. Main timeline Ellie *does not* know about the Sideways Universe. In fact, the only main timeline character (with the possible exception of Flocke or Jacob) to know of the sideways universe is Des.

The Once and Future Charles

Considering the surprise (not really--thanks very much rules that force a guest star's name to appear in the beginning credits even if he shows up for only the last 5 seconds of the show) appearance of Charles Widmore at the conclusion of Dr. Linus, it appears I've got little time to put this post up.


And I want to. Because Charles Widmore is a tricky guy. And he's lucky enough to be played by three actors who all have the gravitas to make us viewers know that...this is not a dude to be trifled with. But its 2007 Charles that will be returning, and Alan Dale will be a very welcome injection of cold, unyielding will after the coming and going of whiny temple translators, the meekening of Benjamin Linus, and the (funny, but enough already) frequent 'Hurley asking cute questions that the fan community also wants to know' moments.

Recent developments do suggest possible motivations for Charles's actions. When Flocke tells Ben that when he leaves, someone must be left behind 'in charge of things', its a mythology reveal we hadn't heard of before, and also another piece in the puzzle of 'what MiB wants' (a post I'll try to write before next week). But...could Widmore be allied with Flocke and trying to angle his way into this (genuine?) position? Who knows. In Widmore's loyalties are...murky. Two separate posts, one titled 'Why Widmore really works for Jacob' and the other 'Why Widmore really works for MiB' could easily be written. Each would be very long and, and each very well buttressed with incidents in the show to support their respective arguments. So I won't do that here...I'll just go ahead and present:

THE CHARLES WIDMORE DOSSIER: QUESTIONS:

1. What is Charles Widmore’s goal?

2. Is he currently allied with either MiB or Jacob? Has he switched alliances in the past? It’s pretty unambiguous that Bram and Ilana are adherents of Jacob. Yet they tell Miles that Widmore is on the ‘wrong side’. But we know that Widmore (with Ellie? After Ellie?) led the Others for a considerable amount of time…and the Others are Jacob’s boyz.

3. What angle is Widmore playing? Why?

4. Did Widmore expect/anticipate that Desmond would be drawn to the Island. Is he aware of Desmond's specialness?

5. What rules do he and Ben refer to in their nighttime conversation? Are they the same rules as the barefoot forest boy reminds Flocke of?

The Mystery of the Outrigger Shootings

Plenty of people watch Lost. And plenty of people who watch Lost could care less about how one goes about deciphering the runes on the Temple walls, or reading theories about the origins of Jacob and Man-in-black’s conflict as a dramatic evocation of a drunken argument between Kierkegaard and Flannery O’Connor concerning the capacity of men to be redeemed in the eyes of something greater than men. But...they do care about exactly who shot, stabbed, thunked on the back of the head, strangled, or otherwise attempted to murder someone else.



Sometimes we learn the culprit of such an act in the same episode the offense occurred—like when Charlie knocked out Sun in ‘The Long Con’. Sometimes it takes a couple of episodes for the mystery to be solved, as when John eventually confesses to Sayid that it was he who knocked him out during the attempt to triangulate the radio tower. And sometimes it takes a season and a half, a la the interval between learning that Locke was dead, and eventually learning who was responsible. Well, there remains one festering, unsolved shooting that we’ve yet to get a clue on: The outrigger shootings of ‘The Little Prince’. But, But…I have a theory!

I will now predict who was responsible for shooting at Sawyer, Locke, Juliet, et al as they rowed toward the Orchid (this is recapitulated from a comment made here): I think we’ve been given enough clues (in the episode ‘Lighthouse’) to solve this mystery: I propose that Claire was in the pursuing outrigger that opened fire on Locke, Sawyer, and Co. when they were attempting to row to the Orchid Station, and it was Claire whom Juliet hit when she returned fire.

Jin uncovers the first clue during his brief perusal of Claire's tent before she comes back with the still-alive Justin. He's only able to poke around in Krazy Klaire's Kreepshow Karriage by using an oar as a crutch. I didn't catch it on the first viewing, but on my rewatch it scanned as not random right away, cuz this was one symbol heavy episode. In the next scene, Claire tells Jin he was lucky she was here to patch him up, not like the time she stitched herself up after she was shot, she claims by the others, in her left thigh.

If, as [another commenter] suggested, Flocke came into existence on the island 3 years before 316 landed, he may have been one of the others on the outrigger with Claire.

As far as why she might shoot at the Lefties, I’d recall that Claire doesn't seem to need a reason to kill Others. If she was deceived into believing, or simply assumed, that Others were on the boat, I've no problem believing she'd shoot to kill. As to why MiB would specifically advise Claire to shoot at the boat, I can think of nothing. The shooting didn't force the Lefties to do anything crucial that might fit into some kind of time loop stratagem—a la the compass—and the flash back to Rosseauvian times occurred next.

So, that's my case for the 'Claire-shooter' theory. However, there’s considerable evidence against it in the same Season 5 episode. Sawyer finds an Ajira water bottle in the outrigger on the beach. Now, if we take the presence of the Ajira bottle in the outrigger to date this flash to post 316 landing (I'm surprised, but Lostpedia lists the exact date of 316's departure as unknown, but taking place sometime in 2007) we might think the flash these events occurred in was in 2007. But—remember the instantaneous night to day transition 316 makes during its descent to Hydra Island? Could 316 have taken off in 2007, but descended onto hydra island at the same instant the island moved through spacetime, thus landing at some other time than 2007? It’s conceivable, but I think a couple of now-revealed S6 pieces of information limit any possible 316 timeshift from its L.A. 2007 takeoff timeframe to the 30-odd minutes that Faraday recorded in his 'launch the payload' experiments. This puts the Lefties (unknown to them) setting off to row toward the Orchid in 2007. Their camp is pretty decrepit, conceivably the result of 3 years of decay.

If it was Claire & 'friends' shooting at the Lefties, she would've been injured, at most, just days previous to her run-in with Jin. Obviously, this wouldn’t be enough time to heal from the wound. Still, I'd be really, really surprised if we didn't have a Claire-centric flashback episode later this season, so let's hope we find out more about her past 3 years on the island!

THE OUTRIGGER SHOOTING DOSSIER: QUESTIONS:

1. Who was the culprit in the outrigger shootings? Why did they fire on the Lefties?

2. Was one of the shooters wounded? Who?

3. When did the shootings take place?